TD Economics Report Feb 8, 2017

TD Economics brought to you by Dina Ignjatovic, Economist

 

Data Release: Housing starts kick off the year on strong footing

 

  • Canadian housing starts kicked off the year on a strong note, with homebuilders breaking ground on 207k units (annualized) in January.  This extends December's sharp gain, and pushes the 6-month moving average up just shy of the 200k unit mark.

 

  • The strength in January stemmed from the multi-family sector, which was up 4.2% following a 14% gain in December.  Meanwhile, single family construction was down 4.6% on the month, reversing some of December's gains.

 

  • Regionally, Ontario remained the key driver of growth, with starts up by a whopping 25% in January.  Homebuilding in the Atlantic Provinces was also up during the month while the remaining regions recorded declines.  B.C. experienced the largest pullback, as home starts slid 33% from the month prior.

 

Key Implications

 

  • Overall, housing starts have been hovering around the 200k mark annualized (on a trend basis) for the last six quarters, or just slightly above the current rate of household formation.  However, homebuilding construction should begin to slow over the course of the year, consistent with a cooling in overall housing market activity.

 

  • Still, the recent strength in multi-unit projects could have further room to run given the surge in building permit approvals seen over the second half of last year. This could be partly offset by single-family construction, which is already at relatively lofty levels.

 

  • The regional story will continue to reverberate across the housing markets, with central Canada leading the way, while B.C. and the oil-rich provinces lagging behind.

 

 

House over $500,000? New downpayment rules in February 2015
 March 1 2016     Posted by Jennifer Gaudet


House over $500,000? New downpayment rules in February

 

On February 15, 2016, minimum downpayment rules are changing in Canada – for homes worth more than $500,000. The change is straightforward: for any portion of the house price over $500,000, buyers will need to provide 10% downpayment for an insured mortgage. The minimum downpayment for the first $500,000 will remain unchanged at 5%.

How much difference could it make? Here’s a simple example:

Right now, you could get a mortgage for a $750,000 home with a downpayment of $37,500: a simple 5% of $750,000. Once the new rules kick in next month, you’ll need $50,000 downpayment for the same house: 5% for the first $500,000 ($25,000), plus 10% for the $250,000 over the limit (another $25,000).

The change was announced in mid-December by the new Liberal Finance Minister, Bill Morneau. While most Canadian homebuyers will be unaffected, the move is designed to protect Canadian homeowners by ensuring a stronger equity footing in their homes.

If there’s a house purchase in your future, let’s talk. You will need a mortgage approval before February 15 to qualify under the 5% rule, and your purchase must also close before July 1, 2016.

Here is a handy chart that outlines the impact of the New Minimum Downpayment Requirement

 

Purchase Price

New Downpayment Requirement

Old Downpayment Requirement of 5 percent

Up to & including $500,000

No change. 5% - up to $25,000

up to $25,000

$600,000

 

$30,000

$700,000

 

$35,000

$800,000

 

$40,000

$900,000

 

$45,000

$999,999

 

$50,000


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